What An Idea Madam Ji!!!

I have highest of regards for Ms. Neerja Chowdhury. She is an acclaimed, accomplished political, social commentator, a very senior journalist with years of experience behind her. She has seen the murky waters of Indian politics very closely and knows the inhabitants of these waters very well.

Having said this, I can’t bring myself to agree with her latest article, sorry, analysis of the current political scenario that was carried in a popular well read English daily. The newspaper, in question here, is DNA English Daily which published her analysis on 10^th September 2011 (http://epaper.dnaindia.com/epapermain.aspx?queryed=9&eddate=9/10/2011) and titled it “Events Pushing Rahul into the prime minister’s chair”. I suggest that please read Ms. Chowdhury’s article to understand the points shared below.

My first bone of contention is on the usage of the word ‘Push’. Normally, the word push is used in context of making someone do an act against his/her willingness. Becoming the PM is the ultimate desire of any politician worth his salt and this ambition applies to Rahul as well. No one needs a push and if Rahul is “unwilling” to become PM, then it sets a big question mark over the statements of some congress leaders.

He was never unwilling perhaps he was unprepared at least during UPA-I (a grooming period for him). The word Push can rather be applied for the present incumbent of the coveted post – S. Manmohan Singh. Anyways, this is not the primary objective of this write-up.

Ms. Chowdhury’s analysis, in essence, has pointed put three “reasons’ (detailed in her  article; for reader’s sake. I will outline them) which are ‘pushing’ Rahul into the PM’s chair. The following is a humble attempt by a grossly inexperienced common observer of Indian politics to dissect and debate the three reasons.

Let’s have a closer look…

Reason 1) There has been a slide in the popularity of Manmohan Singh. Anna agitation against corruption represented angst of middle class, recent foreign policy muddle w.r.t Teesta river pact & Didi’s outburst, recent terror blasts in Delhi. Open support of his candidature by Mr. Digvijay Singh & observation of Praveen Aaron that Anna issue was deliberately mishandled to derail Rahul from becoming PM.

Yes Singh is no longer the king. To be fair to him, he had a comparatively unblemished, peaceful first term. But the recent issues, scams and turbulence, particularly in last 120 days, have indeed made the Government unpopular. When congress made it clear that UPA government is run by coalition dharma, all stakeholder’s views are taken, then why single out one man for unpopularity. There should be a collective responsibility of failure. And how does it prove that PM’s popularity is inversely proportional to Rahul’s popularity?

Anna Hazare movement was against corruption and it was a matter of chance that Manmohan Singh is the PM of the government which received his & his follower’s ire. Does it in anyway suggest that had Rahul been the PM with Anna protesting , there would have been a dip in the following of Anna. The agitation was not against one particular person but against the system.

Mamta Banerjee’s public outcry – she said that the government did not inform her prior about Teesta draft proposal. Was Manmohan Singh personally supposed to call her? Yes he was wrong in assuming that his concerned team members mite have informed her. There was a miscommunication. Same could have been repeated by Rahul. Moreover, Ms. Mamta Banerjee, known for her temperament, can make public outcry against the most popular Prime Minister of her times.

The recent Delhi blasts is one of the many blasts that have happened. The frustration of people have been the same post each blast. If blast is a reason, then PM should have resigned eons ago. And does it mean that unfortunately, if there is a blast in times PM Rahul Gandhi, he will resign?

Mr. Digvijay Singh’s support of Rahul Gandhi can not be considered a reason. It is one man’s wish for changing the system. Just because he has been vocal can not be subscribing enough to make Rahul as the next PM.

Praveen Aaron’s statement is questioning of the entire congress party. This party has never seen or known anything before or after Gandhi family. The government has enough and more cohorts of Gandih family, so how can some people mishandle Anna issue in order to derail Rahul Gandhi’s chance of becoming PM. Isn’t he more or less already accepted by one and all within the party as their next PM candidate.

Moreover, let’s have some quick rejoinders on Rahul’s so called popularity.

To keep it short, we will look at just two incidents

1)      Post the much hyped , media supported padyatra of Rahul, there was Kisan Mahapanchayat on 9^th July at Numaish Maidan, Aligarh. The much hyped meeting was a damp squib and a disaster to the T. With major attendance from congress workers & wannbes, there were very little number of actual beneficiaries.

2)      The recent reception that was extended to Rahul at RML again questions his so called popularity. Even Gadkari visited RML but he was not heckled. A popular politician is popular in ANY circumstances. Perhaps, he needs to give samosa to people too frequently.

Reason 2) UP is the compelling reason. With a personal stake, the results will define his stature. BJP thinks that scam after scam & Anna movement will make UP voters look at BJP with new eye whereas congress thinks that Rahul as PM will make upper caste vote for him.

Yes, UP is indeed the compelling reason. It’s make or break for Rahul’s credibility as a leader and organizer. The elections, scheduled for 2012, is still along way to go and can not be a reason for change in central leadership of congress NOW.

Congress ruled the state for a long time but that was before the parties of strong local reckoning like SP & BSP came in the forefront. The UP before and after Mandal commission agitation are altogether different.

This is a state which is driven by a strong casteist politics. With Muslim, OBC & SC/St votes divided between SP, BSP & Congress, there is polarization but the higher caste (Brahmins & Thakurs) have always supported BJP and there is no reason to believe that they wudn’t in the ensuing assembly elections. Besides, the return of Uma Bharti, the prodigal daughter of BJP, will obviously help in getting some lower caste votes for the party.

Moreover, the state voting trends r different in western, central & Eastern UP. Rahul’s padyatra was limited to western UP and can not guarantee voted in Central & Eastern UP in a big way.

Moreover, by supporting the farmers, he has possibly managed to alienate himself from Thakur votes, so that vote is assured for BJP.

BJP is the only party seen to have supported Anna openly. With the anti corruption wave, this again would be of positive consequence to BJP.

So UP elections cannot really be a call for change of leadership at centre. Perhaps post assembly elections we can decide.

Reason 3) And that is his mother's health, and she was abroad for over a month now for treatment for an undisclosed illness. From all accounts, she may not be able to play a proactive public role for some time till she recovers. She will want to see Rahul installed in the top gaddi, rather than wait till 2014. Even if the Congress loses in 2014, he would be Leader of Opposition — and on the political track.

I agree that this is the most plausible reason considering the dynastic party congress is. With ‘princes’ like Sachin pilot, Jitin Prasad, Jyotiriditya Scindia & other leaders firmly behind the “Crown Prince”, it’s natural that  Rahul is elevated to the gaddi.

Though normal logic, defies Sonia “wanting” Rahul to become PM, as a reason at all, but when  much more experienced party leaders (than both mom & son) will kowtow and not leave any stone unturned in making Rahul the PM, then it is good enough a reason to believe.

Sonia Gandhi & family was marginalized by Late Narsimha Rao but post his demise, she slowly but surely crept her way in, of course she made her own coterie of late Arjun Singh, Janardhan Dwivedi etc but the queen is careful enough to change her loyalists the moment she feels their presence/utterance of slightest provocation. This is one trick, I am sure Rahul will be quick to follow and once learned, if not already, will be willing & not pushed to PM gaddi. There would always be lame ducks in his regime offering his shoulders for mistakes and enough mouth to lavish praises on him alone for all the great works

Though I feel if that being the son of Rajiv, grand son of Indira, great grandson of Nehru  and great great grandson of Motilal is no reason or qualification enough to justify Rahul to the PM’s post but Congress’ indisputable discipline & ideology, of respect for family over party, is good enough to propel Rahul to become PM. Even though a PM post solicits its occupant to have all the right credentials, experience, wisdom and knowledge of varied topics, but Rahul will be the ‘Caesar’ with a ‘think tank’ to manage the senate sorry our parliament.